Tesla's Cars Not Selling... Wall Street Focuses on 'Single Growth Opportunity'

Tesla's 2026 second-quarter vehicle delivery consensus estimate stands at 406,024 units, according to Electrek, which cites the figure as disclosed by Tesla on its investor relations page. If realized, this represents a 5.7% increase from the 384,122 units delivered in the same period last year, though the growth rate remains modest. Analysts predict Model 3 and Model Y will account for 392,625 units, while other models like the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck are expected to deliver only 12,978 units, a decline from the 16,130 units reported in the first quarter of 2026. Tesla clarified it does not endorse analysts' forecasts, but all post-second-quarter numbers are presented as consensus estimates. The broader debate centers on annual forecasts, with Wall Street's 2026 consensus at 1.65 million units and a median estimate of 1.66 million, reflecting a roughly 1% annual growth rate compared to 2025's 1.64 million deliveries. Long-term projections suggest deliveries could rise to 1.82 million in 2027, 2.06 million in 2028, 2.36 million in 2029, and 2.64 million in 2030, though analysts' estimates vary significantly, with a standard deviation of 766,000 units for 2030. Tesla's energy storage business appears more promising, with 13.8 GWh projected for the second quarter of 2026, compared to 8.8 GWh in the first quarter. Annual growth is forecasted to reach 57.9 GWh by 2026, 79.8 GWh by 2027, and 150.1 GWh by 2030.