Hormuz Strait Shipping Normalization Expectations Plunge... Calci Probability Drops to 47%

Expectations for Hormuz Strait shipping to return to normal levels by July 2027 have dropped below 50%, with prediction market Calci showing a 47% probability on Thursday. This marks a sharp decline from 70% two days prior, driven by the U.S. military attacks on Iranian facilities and President Donald Trump's comments suggesting potential for further strikes. Short-term outlook remains bleak, with only 38% chance of normalization by year-end and 48% chance of recovery by April 2027. Contracts require an average of 60 vessels per week under IMF criteria, but current levels hover around 12. Escalating military tensions around Hormuz and the Red Sea persist, with Pakistan pressuring the U.S. and Iran for dialogue resumption and China supporting such efforts. Trump warned Iranian responsibility for any new Houthi attacks. Oil price forecasts have been upwardly revised, with Rafidin Energy Group predicting Brent crude to remain around $100 per barrel through year-end following U.S.-Iran talks collapse.